World Bank: Prepare For The Next Crisis Now
First, the World Bank warned about a coming economic crisis.
Then the International Monetary Fund warned about the global housing crisis.
All in one week. Should investors begin embracing? After all, the stock markets have begun to top, or so it would seem, as tensions in Iraq increase.
The crisis in Ukraine, slowdown in China, warnings about the global housing market and coming global rise in interest rates are all expected to defeat global growth, according to the World Bank, which is pushing urgent global banking and financial reforms.
The Washington-based organization, an agency of the United Nations which aims to provide loans to developing countries, downgraded its global growth forecast from 3.2% to 2.8%.
“We are not totally out of the woods yet,” Kaushik Basu, the bank’s senior vice president and chief economist, said in a press release.
“A gradual tightening of fiscal policy and structural reforms are desirable to restore fiscal space depleted by the 2008 financial crisis. In brief, now is the time to prepare for the next crisis.”
The World Bank picked out economies like Ghana, India, Kenya, Malaysia and South Africa in need of “special attention,” although many argue that western industrialized nations are having issues, especially those in the European Union and US. The banks urged these countries to tighten fiscal policy and spark a new wave of structural reforms. Growth for developing countries will be 4.8% percent this year, down from its January estimate of 5.3%.
The World Bank estimates growth to be 7.6% this year, but the government would need to balance its fiscal books.
“Growth rates in the developing world remain far too modest to create the kind of jobs we need to improve the lives of the poorest 40 percent,” President Jim Yong Kim said. “Countries need to move faster and invest more in domestic structural reforms to get broad-based economic growth to levels needed to end extreme poverty in our generation.”
Central banks in the UK and US will ultimately spike their rates and put an end to quantitative easing. World Bank anticipates this will contribute to market uncertainty. US growth was downgraded as well to 2.1% down from 2.8%.
Russia and Ukraine’s dispute over gas pricing is holding down markets. If the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates could spell financial turmoil in emerging markets.
Although gold and silver have had a calm and depressed two years, there is no doubt in my mind that when this is over, when the next crisis kicks in, gold and silver, like a volleyball held under water, will skyrocket towards new highs. That’s why I recommend people lock in these low prices now, as opposed to waiting.
Authored by Peter Kevorkian