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Is The Gold Market Remaining Low?

Gold is a long-term store of value and these recent weeks have shown that.

Gold bullion is down 5 percent in one week. It has fallen below $1,180 which many people viewed as an important resistance level.  Gold futures has support at that level, a four-year low, but it’s fallen below that.  Some say we are seeing the end of the gold market collapse. Mark Down is one.

“2011 was the first phase of the gold bubble unwind. We consolidated for the past year. And it looks as though we’re starting the second and more difficult phase of the unwind of the bubble,” Dow said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

The presumption that the crisis is over is leading some “experts” to believe that gold is headed for long-term doldrums and an end to a bull market.

“Gold benefited significantly in the post-crisis period from the monetary policy story. But a lot of fears in the monetary policy phase have proven unfounded.”

“All of the guys over the past five years who have been talking about bubbles in stocks and bubbles in bonds, they hid to protect themselves in the only true bubble,” said Dow, who writes for the Behavioral Macro blog. “In fact, they’ve created their own bubble trying to avoid perceived bubbles, and now they’re trapped.”

Can gold go back to precrisis levels?

“My guess is we have to go back, at a minimum, to the precrisis levels. Now, bubbles can overshoot, so they could go a bit farther. But you can see on a chart that precrisis, we were probably $700 to $750 in gold,” Dow said.

“When you hear guys stop saying, ‘Well no, it’s not that inflation hasn’t happened, it’s that it hasn’t happened yet,’ then the bubble has probably unwound,” Dow advised.

Gold futures fell overnight marking their lowest slump in seven weeks. This is mostly due in part to a greenback rising against a large basket of currencies. Banks are expecting gold to fall further. The chances of gold dropping below $1,000 as cheaper energy signals lower inflation.

These reasons highlight the need for numismatic coins, which have sustained higher prices despite the volatile precious metals prices. Those who have sold jewelry have fared well also.


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